The Political Week That Was – March 14, 2016

Once again it was a whirlwind week in politics. Surprises, upsets, and controversy marked the campaign trail this week. Each Party held a debate during the week, and there was an intense focus on several important primaries scheduled for tomorrow. Tuesday’s primaries in five states are set to deliver the largest round of delegates awarded so far. It was also a week of increasing violence as Donald Trump had to cancel a rally in Chicago on Friday and there was a security scare at one of his Saturday rallies when Secret Service agents rushed onto the stage when Trump was speaking.

Key primaries were held in Michigan and Mississippi last week. In Michigan, Bernie Sanders won by a narrow margin in spite of polls showing him losing. Nate Silver of FiveThirty Eight said that Sanders victory was “among the greatest polling errors in primary history.”  In Mississippi, Hillary won with nearly 83% of the vote and at the end of the day she won 19 more delegates than Bernie did. However, the win in Michigan was important for Sanders and has given his campaign a boost.

Early in the week, Hillary Clinton campaigned in both Michigan and Mississippi, but her focus all week has been on the critically important big state primaries coming up this Tuesday where there will be 691 delegates up for grabs. Real Clear Politics poll averages show Hillary leading in all five states, although Bernie Sanders has been making inroads in both Illinois and Missouri, and could eke out a victory in one or both states. However, any Sanders win in these two states would be only by a few percentage points while in the states where Hillary is ahead, she wins by double-digit margins. Under the Democratic rules of awarding delegates proportionally, Hillary will win significantly more delegates on Tuesday than Bernie, further cementing her overwhelming lead in the delegate count.

It was PBS’s turn to host the Democrats in a debate last Wednesday, which was held in Milwaukie. It was one of the more contentious debates between the two Democratic candidates in the past several months and was in sharp contrast to the lovefest debate that the Republicans held the following night in Miami.

The New York Times described Hillary’s mood at the debate as follows:

Mrs. Clinton, bruised by her surprise loss in the Michigan primary a day earlier, was on the attack throughout the debate as she sought to undercut Mr. Sanders’s momentum before the next round of primaries.

The candidates clashed most notably over immigration. Hillary attacked Bernie over his refusal to support a 2007 bill sponsored by Sen. Ted Kennedy that would have created a path to citizenship. Bernie mostly ignored the immigration issue and kept retreating to standard stump speech about the unfair economy and how the political system is stacked against just about everyone.

On the GOP side, Trump continued to dominate the conversation. Donald won three of the four Republican contests held on March 8 while Ted Cruz won in Idaho. Later in the week, Ted also won Wyoming while Marco Rubio scored a rare win in Washington D.C. where he edged out John Kasich in a primary that most folks did not realize was happening.  The primaries on Tuesday will have 358 delegates up for grabs, with two of the states, Florida and Ohio being winner-take-all contests. Trump leads in four of the five states including Florida. John Kasich is leading in Ohio, which is a must-win state for him. If the polls are correct, and Trump beats Rubio in Florida it would be lights out for Marco.

The week was marred by an increase of violence at several Trump events. A rally scheduled to be held at the University of Chicago campus was canceled after fears that protesters would clash with Trump supporters. Earlier in the week, several arrests were made at other Trump rallies after fights broke out between protesters and Trump supporters.

After this week’s primaries, the campaigns and candidates will be able to take a breather for a couple of weeks of much-needed rest and recuperation. The Republican field should be narrowed down after Tuesday’s results are known and Hillary should have further strengthened her lock on the Democrat nomination.