Win Over Sanders Voters

In recent weeks, Donald Trump has done the improbable – consolidate support from establishment Republicans. Trump’s recent success on that front is reflected in national polls that now project a much tighter general election race than these same polls showed just a few weeks ago. The urgency for Hillary to do the same on the Democratic side is now only heightened. If Hillary wants to win in November, she will need to make serious inroads with Sanders supporters who she will need in her corner in order to defeat Trump.

Some recent polls show that Sanders supporters still view Hillary with a healthy dose of skepticism, which could seriously impede her ability to woo these voters to her side.  According to a recent NBC/WSJ poll, just 66 percent of Democratic primary voters preferring Sanders stated that they would support Hillary in a general election matchup against Trump. Moreover, 41 percent of Sanders supporters view Hillary negatively, while just 38 percent view her positively. A recent Economist/YouGov poll found that even less Sanders supporters (50 percent) would vote for Hillary in the general election, and this percentage has steadily declined since April.

There is some history on Hillary’s side, however, as pointed out by noted political guru Larry Sabato. In a recent column, Sabato makes the case that unifying the Democratic Party around Hillary in 2016 may be markedly easier than it was for the Party to unify around Barack Obama in 2008. Despite an arguably more contentious 2008, primary battle than in 2016, 83 percent of Clinton primary voters in 2016 ended up choosing Obama over McCain in the general election, according to American National Election Study data. ANES data also shows that 94 percent of Clinton supporters turned out in the 2008 general election, which was roughly the same share of Obama primary voters that turned out (96 percent). Based on his analysis, Sabato concludes the following:

Perhaps the key lesson that we can learn from the results of the 2008 battle between Clinton and Obama is that Sanders supporters probably do not have to love Clinton in order to vote for her in the general election. They merely have to like her as well or better than Trump, and that should be a very easy bar to clear.

It goes without saying that Trump has far less appeal to self-identifying Democrats in 2016 then McCain had in 2008. The notion that Democratic primary voters may be persuaded to support Trump in the general election in 2016 is absurd.

A potential secret weapon of sorts has emerged out of the blue in the past month or so for Hillary’s campaign as it strategizes about how to win over Sanders supporters. That secret weapon is none other than Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who like Bernie, is one of the patron saints of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Warren has feistily gone after Trump on Twitter and in public lately, most recently attacking Trump at a speech at the Center for Popular Democracy’s annual gala. Warren’s increased proactive involvement in the 2016 race has fueled speculation that Hillary may select Warren as her running mate.

While there is much consternation in Democratic circles these days, we fully expect the Party to unify around Hillary and propel her to victory in November.